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MARKET REPORT: Nautical rides crest of a wave
By ELLIOT WILSON
Updated: 22:54 GMT, 23 September 2010

View
comments

Some companies are lucky, others have luck thrust upon them.

Then there is Nautical Petroleum. The AIM-listed oil and gas independent seems to stumble upon black gold wherever it goes.

In recent months it has struck ‘substantial’ oil at the giant Kraken field off
the Shetland Islands, and yet more hydrocarbons at the sizeable Catcher reserve east of Edinburgh.

Now, Nautical has decided to roll the dice.
Its big new fields will be hugely capital intensive,
absorbing huge quantities of cash long before the investment pays off.

Market report

Aware of its predicament, Nautical has moved to boost its own capital reserves, selling a 20.67
per cent stake in Mariner, another major North Sea oilfield, to Norway’s Statoil, for £87.5million. Nautical retains a 6 per cent stake in Mariner
and gets to lavish greater cash and attention on its strapping new
babies.

The company can currently do no wrong. Investors would barely raise
an eyebrow if chief executive Steve Jenkins visited one of his oil platforms
by levitating there across the water. Nautical’s stock, languishing below 50p at the start of the year,
closed up 54p at 365.5p, a 660pc rise on the year.

More…

Market data thisismoney.co.uk

Stock market predictions: What next? thisismoney.co.uk

Share & fund tips thisismoney.co.uk

Cannacord Genuity analyst Lindsay Wheeler reiterated her buy rating on the stock and raised her
target price to 465p from 337p, applauding the Mariner sale as ‘a very positive
development’.

She added that Nautical’s oil-fuelled rise likely isn’t over,
noting that there was ‘still significant upside’ on a stock set to benefit further from both Catcher and Kraken.

Aberdeen Asset Management saw its shares jump on rumours that Mitsubishi UFJ Financial might boost its stake to
around 30pc. The Japanese banking giant currently owns 16pc of Britain’s largest fund manager.
Aberdeen-closed 3.5p higher at 152.5p. One analyst-tipped Mitsubishi to take its stake to 30 per cent ‘and possibly beyond’ as it seeks
to expand its reach into new Asian markets.

Another long-running takeover rumour focusing on Wellstream was called into doubt.
The oil services group has long been touted as a target for the likes of Saipem,
National Oilwell Vargo, and Aker Solutions. But Citi analyst Kenan Najafov
scotched the talk, dismissing the chances of a deal and noting:
‘Whoever tries to buy the stock is likely to be careful about the price.’ Najafov also downgraded Wellstream (down 12p at
777p) to hold from buy.

The Footsie spent most of the day searching for purpose and
direction. It started badly, its mood soured by disappointing
American jobs figures, before reversing early gains and ending 4.83 points lower at 5547.08.

-Leading banks endured a numbing day, weakened by persistent concerns
about potential European sovereign defaults and rumours that Anglo Irish may fail to pay subordinated debt holders.

Lloyds Banking Group closed 0.76p lower at 75.1p, with Royal Bank of Scotland ending 0.46p down at 47.95p.

Barclays ended 0.45p off at 306.35p while HSBC, riven by internal squabbling over succession planning,
ended flat at 663.9p.

Miners reversed early losses, with BHP Billiton closing flat at 2000.5p
and Rio Tinto adding 0.5p to 3653p. Xstrata gained 10.5p to close at 1209p while Eurasian Natural
Resources Corporation cheapened 1.5p to end at 898p. GCM Resources enjoyed a supercharged day:
its stock jumped nearly 20 per cent, closing up 38.75p at 239.5p on talk
that it was close to gaining a coal mining license in Bangladesh.

Pacific Rim miner Solomon Gold enjoyed another startling day on the markets.
Its shares, trading at just above 5p on September 7, have since risen ten-fold on promising results from
its Fauro Island project. The company’s stock jumped 137 per cent, closing up 30.5p at 52.75p after the company
announced that its new project in the Solomon Islands
had the potential to be a ‘world-class gold deposit’.

McBride, a private-label firm that makes dishwasher tablets for Asda and shaving gel for Tesco,
saw its stock slide 2.1p to 184.9p after being downgraded to hold from buy by Panmure Gordon. The
broker also reduced its target price on the stock to 170p from 190p.

Drugs giant AstraZeneca saw its shares slip 37.5p to 3312p, with Shire
closing 11p lower at 1462p after Exane downgraded both companies to
underperform from neutral. Rival GlaxoSmithKline cheapened 13p to 1258.5p.
Airline and transportation logistics specialist Dart Group saw its
stock slip 2p to 74.5p despite enjoying an earnings
forecast upgrade by Collins Stewart.

– Petra Diamonds saw its stock jump by more than 5 per cent, closing 4p higher at 79.75p,
after posting record full-year profits earlier this week. Canaccord
Genuity maintained its ‘buy’ rating and raised its target price by 5p to 130p after Petra overhauled Gem
Diamonds as the largest London listed producer of the precious metal.
Petra is on track to treble production by 2019.

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By Howard Schneider

WASHINGTON, May 4 (Reuters) – Fears that U.S.
cities would be emptied by the coronavirus pandemic are giving way to potential signs of revival, according to a
series of analyzes that suggest any dislocation from the last
year will prove temporary.

Some data suggest a return is already underway. Cellphone tracking firm Unacast had earlier noted that phone users were shifting their overnight locations out of New York, but now sees them coming back.

“New York is growing again,” with the city adding a net 1,900 people in the first two months
of 2021 versus a loss of 7,100 in the same two months of 2019 and the 110,000
estimated by the company to have left the city throughout 2020.

The turn may have begun last fall, when the
usual seasonal jump in population centered around the arrival of college students roughly
matched that of 2019, fewer people left the city
than the year before, and “there was a large influx from areas surrounding the city, perhaps the return of some who left … at the height of the pandemic,”
the company wrote in a new research report.

Manhattan and the Bronx “demonstrate particular resilience,”
gaining 21,000 residents over the first two months of
2021. Three of New York City’s five counties surveyed
by the company lost population, though one, Kings County, saw the pace of loss ease compared to
before the pandemic.

Similarly, Bank of America economists wrote last week that they “don’t see evidence of a broad urban exodus,” a conclusion that
combined analysis of the company’s own card spending data as well as a survey of other reports.

Expensive markets like New York City and San Francisco saw
an already established trend of population loss accelerate, Bank of America
analysts wrote. But they noted that people tended not to move far.

And with home sales and rental prices having
dropped in those locations, the large numbers of younger people who
stayed with parents during the pandemic may now be ready to get places of their own.

“We believe both have the potential for some recovery in the near term. NYC and SF remain premier cities for young renters,” the bank’s analysts wrote.
“With the share of young adults living at home reaching record highs in 2020, there could be some pent-up demand.”

Those and other analyzes downplaying any big shift in migration patterns due to the pandemic
are just one indication that the long-term economic consequences of the past year may not be as deep as feared.

A lot remains to be determined. There are about 4 million fewer people
either working or looking for work than before the pandemic, for example, with many
of them sidelined either by health concerns, closed schools,
the lack of available child care, or other ongoing disruptions to daily life.

It remains unclear how fast those problems will ease and how quickly those people will return to jobs or the hunt for jobs.

The permanence of work-from-home rules could have
a bearing as well on the economic life of cities, and particularly on the fate of office buildings
and the businesses surrounding them independent of whether
the permanent population is growing or not. New research from economists Jose Maria
Barrero, Nicholas Bloom and Steven J. Davis suggests spending
in cities may suffer a permanent hit of 5% to 10%.

But a recent Federal Reserve analysis, for example, found the failure rate of businesses has been much less than anticipated.
Levels of mortgage and loan defaults have not sky-rocketed as feared, and family bank accounts
on the whole have remained healthy or even flush with savings from various federal relief efforts.

EARLY NARRATIVE

Ongoing COVID-19 vaccinations have raised hopes for a broader return to normal,
even in denser urban locations.

A report earlier this year by real estate site Zillow concluded there was no broad drag
on urban housing markets in 2020.

“Suburban homes sold faster than urban homes by the end of 2020, but home value growth, sales volume and Zillow web traffic in urban areas has kept pace with or exceeded levels in suburban areas,” the company concluded.

While the early narrative around urban population decline seemed
stark and obvious, Cleveland Fed economist Stephan Whitaker said it may have
conflated people leaving denser neighborhoods with fewer people moving in – an effect he
tried to disentangle in a February study using consumer credit
data which he said allowed a precise look at where people lived and where
they had moved.

He concluded the pandemic impact was less about people leaving denser, more populous neighborhoods, and more about people not moving to those areas,
a finding consistent with younger adults holed up at parents’ homes delaying
their departures.

While average monthly departures from urban neighborhoods rose 3.7%, from 266,000 to 276,000, from March through September of 2020 versus the same months in 2017
through 2019, in-migration to those places fell at
double that pace, declining from 238,000 to 220,000 per month, a drop of 7.5%.

“Out-migration did increase in many urban neighborhoods, but the magnitudes probably would not fit most definitions of an exodus,” he
wrote. “What is certain is that hundreds of thousands of people who would have moved into an urban neighborhood in a typical year were unwilling or unable to do so in 2020.” (Reporting by Howard Schneider
Additional reporting by Ann Saphir Editing by Paul Simao)

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